Tác động của giá dầu lên lượng khí thải CO2 tại Việt Nam: Liệu có tồn tại hiệu ứng bất đối xứng?

Bá Nguyễn Huy

doi:10.24311/jabes/2023.34.12.1

Các tác giả

Nguyễn Huy Bá Tác giả

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2023.34.12.1

Từ khóa:

Giá dầu, Lượng khí thải CO2, Tiêu thụ năng lượng, Ô nhiễm môi trường, NARDL, Bất đối xứng

Tóm tắt

Bài nghiên cứu này xem xét sự hiện diện tác động bất đối xứng của giá dầu lên lượng khí thải tại Việt Nam bằng cách sử dụng phương pháp Tự hồi quy phân phối trễ phi tuyến (NARDL) với dữ liệu theo tần suất năm của giá dầu thô thực, mức tiêu thụ năng lượng, thu nhập bình quân đầu người thực tế và lượng khí thải trong giai đoạn 1984–2021. Những kết quả quan trọng chính cho thấy: Thứ nhất, giá dầu có ảnh hưởng ngược chiều với lượng khí thải trong dài hạn, cụ thể là giá dầu tăng góp phần làm giảm lượng khí thải và giá dầu giảm lại làm gia tăng lượng khí thải , vốn gây ô nhiễm môi trường. Thứ hai, giá dầu tăng có mức ảnh hưởng mạnh hơn so với giá dầu giảm lên lượng khí thải , điều này hàm ý tồn tại hiệu ứng bất đối xứng của tác động giá dầu lên lượng khí thải trong dài hạn. Thứ ba, trong ngắn hạn, tác động bất đối xứng của giá dầu lên lượng khí thải là ngược chiều so với dài hạn. Những phát hiện này được xem như một nguồn tài liệu tham khảo có ý nghĩa trong việc sử dụng năng lượng hiệu quả và giảm thiểu lượng khí thải nhằm cải thiện chất lượng môi trường.

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