TỔNG QUAN CÁC PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU ĐỊNH LƯỢNG TRONG KINH TẾ VÀ THỰC TIỄN ỨNG DỤNG TẠI VIỆT NAM
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2026.37.10.11Keywords:
Phương pháp định lượng, kinh tế lượng, Học máy, lịch sử phát triển phương pháp định lượng, Việt NamAbstract
Bài viết tổng quan quá trình phát triển của các phương pháp định lượng trong kinh tế và tài chính suốt gần hai thế kỷ, từ quá trình toán học hóa lý thuyết kinh tế (Cournot, 1838) đến giai đoạn của dữ liệu lớn và học máy. Trên cơ sở khung phân tích đó, bài viết xem xét quá trình ứng dụng các phương pháp định lượng trong nghiên cứu ở Việt Nam như một quá trình “nén thời gian”, dựa trên dữ liệu trắc lượng thư mục của 12.691 công bố quốc tế có tác giả Việt Nam được lập chỉ mục trên Web of Science giai đoạn 1990–2025. Kết quả cho thấy số lượng công bố tăng theo cấp số nhân kể từ khoảng năm 2019; các phương pháp nghiên cứu hiện vẫn chủ yếu dựa trên mô hình phương trình cấu trúc (PLS-SEM), kinh tế lượng dữ liệu bảng và các mô hình chuỗi thời gian tài chính, trong khi các phương pháp kiểm định tác động - phân tích chính sách và mô hình cấu trúc còn được sử dụng khá hạn chế. Từ đó, bài viết chỉ ra những hạn chế hiện nay và đề xuất một số định hướng nhằm thúc đẩy sự phát triển của nghiên cứu định lượng ở Việt Nam trong giai đoạn tới.
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