Các yếu tố quyết định sự phát triển của thị trường chứng khoán: Trường hợp các nước đang phát triển và Việt Nam

Abstract

Stock market is a key channel to the mobilization of long-term capital in an economy, and determinants of stock market development in developing countries are still undecided. This paper aims to investigate these determinants in Vietnam and other developing countries, whose differences are also pointed out by applying two-way Generalized Method of Moments to the panel data of 36 developing countries over the period of 2003-2014. Our findings are intriguing. First, in developing countries economic growth, domestic credit, and stock market liquidity are positive determinants of the development of stock market. While the effect of money supply is negative, institutional factors such as government effectiveness and rule of law have significantly positive impacts, in contrast to corruption control and political stability (whose impacts are significant and negative). Second, regarding the development of the stock market in Vietnam, the effects of such macroeconomic factors as economic growth, domestic investment, foreign direct investment, domestic credit, broad money supply, stock market liquidity, and inflation are significant and negative, whereas those of all institution variables, including control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability, regulatory quality, rule of law, and voice and accountability, are significant and positive.