Quản trị công, nợ nước ngoài và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở các nước đang phát triển
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2017.28.12.808Từ khóa:
Quản trị công, Nợ nước ngoài, Tăng trưởng kinh tếTóm tắt
Nghiên cứu nhằm mục đích xem xét tương quan giữa quản trị công và nợ nước ngoài, đồng thời đánh giá tác động của chúng lên tăng trưởng kinh tế ở 65 quốc gia đang phát triển trong giai đoạn 2000–2014 bằng phương pháp GMM Arellano-Bond sai phân hai bước. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy quản trị công thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế trong khi nợ nước ngoài và biến tương tác làm giảm tăng trưởng ở mẫu tổng thể và mẫu thu nhập trung bình cao. Trái lại, ở mẫu thu nhập trung bình thấp, nợ nước ngoài và biến tương tác thúc đẩy tăng trưởng trong khi quản trị công làm giảm. Ngoài ra, đầu tư trong nước, nguồn thu thuế, lực lượng lao động, độ mở thương mại, lạm phát, và cơ sở hạ tầng là những nhân tố tác động có ý nghĩa lên tăng trưởng. Các kết quả này dẫn đến đề xuất một vài chính sách quan trọng cho chính phủ ở các nước đang phát triển.
Tài liệu tham khảo
Acemoglu, D., Johnson S. & Robinson, J. A. (2005). Institutions as a fundamental cause of long-run growth. In P. Aghion & S. N. Durlauf (Ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth (Vol. 1A, pp. 385–472). Elsevier B.V.
Adamu, I. M., & Rasiah, R. (2016). External debt and growth dynamics in Nigeria. African Development Review, 28(3), 291–303.
Alexiou, C., Tsaliki, P., & Osman, H. R. (2014). Institutional quality and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the Sudanese economy. Economic Annals, 59(203), 119–137.
Ali, A. M. (2003). Institutional differences as sources of growth differences. Atlantic Economic Journal, 31(4), 348–362.
Amoateng, K., & Amoako-Adu, B. (1996). Economic growth, export and external debt causality: The case of African countries. Applied Economics, 28(1), 21–27.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(2), 277–297.
Asiedu, E. (2002). On the determinants of foreign direct investment to developing countries: Is Africa different? World Development , 30(1), 107–119.
Bacha, E. L. (1990). A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in
developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 32(2), 279–296.
Barro, R. J., Sala-I-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1991(1), 107–182.
Barro, R. J., & Sala-I-Martin, X. (2004). Economic Growth (2nd ed.). Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.
Bittencourt, M. (2015). Determinants of government and external debt: Evidence from the young democracies of South America. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(3), 463–472.
Bonizzi, B., Laskaridis, C., & Toporowski, J. (2015). Developing Countries’ External Debt and International Financial Integration. Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
Chenery, H. B., & Strout, A. M. (1966). Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. The American Economic Review, 56(4), 679–733.
Chowdhury, K. (1994). A structural analysis of external debt and economic growth: Some evidence from selected countries in Asia and the Pacific. Applied Economics, 26(12), 1121–1131.
Daud, S. N. M., & Podivinsky, J. M. (2011). Debt-growth nexus: A spatial econometrics approach for developing countries. Transition Studies Review, 18(1), 1–15.
Daud, S. N. M., & Podivinsky, J. M. (2012). Revisiting the role of external debt in economic growth of developing countries. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 13(5), 968–993.
Docquier, F. (2014). Identifying the effect of institutions on economic growth. In Institutional Competition between Common Law and Civil Law. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 25–40.
Drine, I., & Nabi, M. S. (2010). Public external debt, informality and production efficiency in developing countries. Economic Modelling, 27(2), 487–495.
Fayissa, B., & Gill, F. (2016). Revisiting the growth-governance relationship in developing Asian and Oceanic economies. Journal of Economics and Finance, 40(4), 803–816.
Ferreira, C. (2016). Debt and economic growth in the European Union: A panel Granger causality approach. International Advances in Economic Research, 22(2), 131–149.
Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., & Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica, 56(6), 1371–1395.
Jayaraman, T. K., & Lau, E. (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific Island countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31(2), 272–288.
Jin, J., & Zou, H. (2005). Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China. Journal of Asian Economics, 16(6), 1047–1064.
Judson, R. A., & Owen, A. L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: A guide for macroeconomists. Economics Letters, 65(1), 9–15.
Krugman, P. (1988). Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. J. Dev. Econ. 29, 253–268.
Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3–42.
Oatley, T. (2010). Political institutions and foreign debt in the developing world. International Studies Quarterly, 54(1), 175–195.
Ouedraogo, J. (2015). External debt, quality of institutions, and economic growth in WAEMU. In Regional Integration and Policy Challenges in Africa. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 124–142.
Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., Ricci, L., Kraay, A., & Rigobon, R. (2003). Through what channels does external debt affect growth? [with Comments and Discussion]. In Brookings Trade Forum. Brookings Institution Press, 229–277.
Qayyum, U., Din, M., & Haider, A. (2014). Foreign aid, external debt and governance. Economic Modelling, 37, 41–52.
Qayyum, U., & Haider, A. (2014). Foreign aid, external debt and economic growth nexus in low-income countries: The role of institutional quality. The Pakistan Development Review, 51(4), 97–115.
Rocha, M., & Oreiro, J. L. (2013). Capital accumulation, external indebtedness, and macroeconomic performance of emerging countries. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(4), 599–620.
Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing returns and long-run growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002–1037.
Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The Stata Journal, 9(1), 86–136.
Sachs, J. D. (2002). Resolving the debt crisis of low-income countries. Brook. Pap. Econ. Act.1, 257–286.
Samuelson, P. A., & Nordhaus, W. D. (1976). Economics (1948). New York: MC GrawHül, 199214.
Siddiqui, D. A., & Ahmed, Q. M. (2013). The effect of institutions on economic growth: A global analysis based on GMM dynamic panel estimation. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 24, 18–33.
Slesman, L., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Ra'ees, W. (2015). Institutional infrastructure and economic growth in member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Economic Modelling, 51, 214–226.
Solimano, A. (1990). Macroeconomic constraints for medium-term growth and
distribution: A model for Chile. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Publications, No.400.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65–94.
Taylor, L. (1994). Gap models. Journal of Development Economics, 45(1), 17–34.
Tondl, G. (2001). Convergence after divergence? Regional growth in Europe. New York, Springer-Verlag Wien New York.
Valeriani, E., & Peluso, S. (2011). The impact of institutional quality on economic growth and development: An empirical study. Journal of Knowledge Management, Economics and Information Technology, 1(6), 1–25.
Vieira, F., MacDonald, R., & Damasceno, A. (2012). The role of institutions in cross-section income and panel data growth models: A deeper investigation on the weakness and proliferation of instruments. Journal of Comparative Economics, 40(1), 127–140.
Wamboye, E., & Tochkov, K. (2015). External debt, labour productivity growth and convergence: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. The World Economy, 38(5), 856–877.
World Bank. (2017). Global Development Finance. Retrieved July 10,
2017, from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/global-financial-development
Lượt tải xuống
Đã Xuất bản
Số
Chuyên mục
Giấy phép
Bản quyền (c) {copyrightHolder}
Tác phẩm này được cấp phép theo Giấy phép Creative Commons Ghi công-Phi thương mại 4.0 Quốc tế.
