Tác động của lãi suất và tỷ giá hối đoái đến rủi ro hệ thống của các tổ chức tài chính tại Việt Nam
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2021.32.8.4Tóm tắt
Nghiên cứu đo lường rủi ro hệ thống của các tổ chức tài chính được niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2010-2018 bằng phương pháp SES (Systemic Expected Shortfall), đồng thời, phân tích ảnh hưởng của lãi suất và tỷ giá hối đoái đến rủi ro hệ thống của các tổ chức tài chính tại Việt Nam bằng hồi quy dữ liệu bảng với phương pháp OLS, FEM, REM và D-GMM. Dữ liệu nghiên cứu thu thập từ 29 tổ chức tài chính, bao gồm: ngân hàng, công ty chứng khoán và công ty bảo hiểm. Kết quả nghiên cứu chỉ ra rằng lãi suất và tỷ giá hối đoái có tác động đến rủi ro hệ thống tại Việt Nam và các tác động này thay đổi theo từng giai đoạn của nền kinh tế. Giai đoạn nền kinh tế chịu ảnh hưởng mạnh bởi cuộc khủng khoảng 2008, tăng lãi suất và tăng giá đồng nội tệ sẽ dẫn đến việc tăng rủi ro hệ thống. Giai đoạn ổn định của nền kinh tế, phá giá đồng nội tệ sẽ làm tăng rủi ro hệ thống.
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