Tác động của các cú sốc vĩ mô lên cán cân thương mại khu vực ASEAN-6: Phương pháp GVAR

Authors

Huy Huỳnh Thái Trường Đại học Kinh tế TP. Hồ Chí Minh Author
Bảo Nguyễn Khắc Quốc Trường Đại học Kinh tế TP. Hồ Chí Minh Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2018.29.11.695

Keywords:

Trade balance, International trade, GVAR, ASEAN-6

Abstract

This paper utilizes a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model for 35 countries to analyze how macroeconomic shocks from ASEAN-6’s major trading partners (such as China, US, and Japan) affect the trade balance in ASEAN-6 area. The paper's empirical results confirm the role of the US real GDP shock as an important determinant of ASEAN-6 area trade balance. The authors also find that, in the long-run, the depreciation of the CNY will lead to a significant trade surplus in China and Vietnam, while the US trade balance tends to deteriorate.

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