Bất định chính sách kinh tế của Trung Quốc và rủi ro sụp đổ giá cổ phiếu của doanh nghiệp Việt Nam
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2025.36.2.08Keywords:
Economic policy uncertainty, Vietnam stock market, Stock crashAbstract
Using a dataset on stock price crash risk for 713 companies listed on Vietnamese stock exchanges from 2010 to 2023, the author find evidence that economic policy uncertainty in China increases the risk of stock price crash of Vietnamese listed firms. The results are robust across various components of economic policies in China and with different measures of stock price crash risk. The impact of policy uncertainty in China on stock price crash risk of Vietnamese firms occurs through three channels, including investor expectation discrepancy, the proportion of institutional shareholder ownership, and the proportion of independent board members. The study suggests that to reduce the risk of stock price crash, Vietnamese firms need to improve mechanisms to enhance corporate governance and reduce discrepancies in investor expectations.
References
Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The world uncertainty index. NBER Working Paper No. w29763, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4039482
Alfraih, M. M. (2016). The effectiveness of board of directors’ characteristics in mandatory disclosure compliance. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 24(2), 154-176. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFRC-07-2015-0035
Andreou, P. C., Lambertides, N., & Magidou, M. (2023). A critique of the agency theory viewpoint of stock price crash risk: The opacity and overinvestment channels. British Journal of Management, 34(4), 2158-2185. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.12693
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Barth, M. E., Landsman, W. R., Raval, V., & Wang, S. (2020). Asymmetric timeliness and the resolution of investor disagreement and uncertainty at earnings announcements. The Accounting Review, 95(4), 23-50. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-52656
Bhargava, R., Faircloth, S., & Zeng, H. (2017). Takeover protection and stock price crash risk: Evidence from state antitakeover laws. Journal of Business Research, 70, 177-184. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2016.08.021
Bianconi, M., Esposito, F., & Sammon, M. (2021). Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns. Journal of International Money and Finance, 119, 102492. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102492
Borochin, P., & Yang, J. (2017). The effects of institutional investor objectives on firm valuation and governance. Journal of Financial Economics, 126(1), 171-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.06.013
Bradshaw, M. T., Hutton, A. P., Marcus, A. J., & Tehranian, H. (2010). Opacity, crash risk, and the option smirk curve. SSRN Electronic Journal. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1640733
Brogaard, J., & Detzel, A. (2015). The asset-pricing implications of government economic policy uncertainty. Management Science, 61(1), 3-18.
Chen, J., Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. (2001). Forecasting crashes: Trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices. Journal of Financial Economics, 61(3), 345-381. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(01)00066-6
Chowdhury, H., Hodgson, A., & Pathan, S. (2020). Do external labour market incentives constrain bad news hoarding? The CEO’s industry tournament and crash risk reduction. Journal of Corporate Finance, 65, 101774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin. 2020.101774
Ferson, W., & Lin, J. (2014). Alpha and performance measurement: The effects of investor disagreement and heterogeneity. The Journal of Finance, 69(4), 1565-1596. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12165
Freund, S., Phan, H. V., Sun, L. S., & Vo, H. (2025). The role of stock liquidity in blockholder governance: Evidence from corporate social responsibility. Financial Review, 60(1), 283-312. https://doi.org/10.1111/fire.12410
Fu, J., Wu, X., Liu, Y., & Chen, R. (2021). Firm-specific investor sentiment and stock price crash risk. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101442. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101442
Gompers, P. A., & Metrick, A. (2001). Institutional investors and equity prices. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 116(1), 229-259. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355301556392
Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhv050
Habib, A., Hasan, M. M., & Jiang, H. (2018). Stock price crash risk: review of the empirical literature. Accounting & Finance, 58, 211-251. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12278
Han, X., Hsu, S., Li, J., & An, R. (2023). Economic policy uncertainty, non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk. Emerging Markets Review, 54, 101003. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2023.101003
Hong, H., & Stein, J. C. (2003). Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and market crashes. The Review of Financial Studies, 16(2), 487-525. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/ hhg006
Huang, Y., & Luk, P. (2020). Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China. China Economic Review, 59, 101367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101367
Hutton, A. P., Marcus, A. J., & Tehranian, H. (2009). Opaque financial reports, R2, and crash risk. Journal of Financial Economics, 94(1), 67-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco. 2008.10.003
Jin, L., & Myers, S. C. (2006). R2 around the world: New theory and new tests. Journal of Financial Economics, 79(2), 257-292. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.11.003
Jin, X., Chen, Z., & Yang, X. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk. Accounting & Finance, 58(5), 1291-1318. https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.12455
Kim, J. B., Li, Y., & Zhang, L. (2011). Corporate tax avoidance and stock price crash risk: Firm-level analysis. Journal of Financial Economics, 100(3), 639-662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2010.07.007
Kim, J. B., Li, Y., & Zhang, L. (2011). CFOs versus CEOs: Equity incentives and crashes. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3), 713-730. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.jfineco.2011.03.013
Kim, J. B., Tseng, K., Wang, J. J., & Xi, Y. (2024). Policy uncertainty, bad news disclosure, and stock price crash risk. Journal of Empirical Finance, 101512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101512
Lam, S. S., Zhang, H., & Zhang, W. (2020). Does policy instability matter for international equity markets?. International Review of Finance, 20(1), 155-196. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/irfi.12222
Li, X. M. (2017). New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 46, 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2017.08.005
Liu, X., Ma, Y., & Xu, Z. (2024). Economic policy uncertainty, risk perception and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Economic Analysis and Policy, 82, 865-876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.04.013
Luo, Y. & Zhang, C. (2020) Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk. Research in International Business and Finance, 51, 101112. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.ribaf.2019.101112
Nguyen, N. H., & Phan, H. V. (2017). Policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(2), 613-644. https://doi.org/10.1017/ S0022109017000175
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2012). Uncertainty about government policy and stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1219-1264. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2012. 01746.x
Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2013). Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(3), 520-545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.08.007
Phan, H. V., Nguyen, N. H., Nguyen, H. T., & Hegde, S. (2019). Policy uncertainty and firm cash holdings. Journal of Business Research, 95, 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.jbusres.2018.10.001
Torchia, M., & Calabro, A. (2016). Board of directors and financial transparency and disclosure. Evidence from Italy. Corporate Governance, 16(3), 593-608. https://doi.org/10.1108/CG-01-2016-0019
Xu, N., Li, X., Yuan, Q., & Chan, K. C. (2014). Excess perks and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 25, 419-434. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2014.01.006
Xu, X., Huang, S., Lucey, B. M., & An, H. (2023). The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US. International Review of Financial Analysis, 88, 102671. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102671
Zhao, Y., & Su, K. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China. International Review of Financial Analysis, 82, 102182. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102182
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 JOURNAL OF ASIAN BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC STUDIES

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.



