Công ty có rủi ro thao túng số liệu kế toán cao hơn liệu có tránh thuế nhiều hơn? Bằng chứng dựa trên chỉ số Beneish M-score và thuế suất hiệu dụng từ thị trường mới nổi Việt Nam
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2025.36.12.06Keywords:
Beneish M-score, Earnings manipulation risk, Effective tax rate, Corporate tax avoidanceAbstract
This study examines the relationship between accounting manipulation risk and tax avoidance in Vietnamese non-financial listed companies from 2016 to 2023. Tax avoidance was measured using the accounting effective tax rate (ACE) and the cash flow effective tax rate (CFE), whereas the Beneish M-score assessed manipulation risk. Using panel data, the GLS model was employed to account for heteroskedasticity with industry-year fixed effects. The results showed that the M-score was negatively correlated with ACE but positively correlated with CFE, implying that the relationship between manipulation risk and tax behavior depends on whether tax is measured using accounting-based indicators reported in financial statements or cash-based indicators reflecting actual tax payments. Robustness tests using Winsorization confirmed that the signs and statistical significance of the results remained stable. The study provides empirical evidence contributing to the complementarity–trade-off debate in emerging markets, with implications for tax authorities, firms, investors, and auditors.
References
Allingham, M. G., & Sandmo, A. (1972). Income tax evasion: A theoretical analysis. Journal of Public Economics, 1(3-4), 323-338.
Armstrong, C. S., Blouin, J. L., Jagolinzer, A. D., & Larcker, D. F. (2015). Corporate governance, incentives, and tax avoidance. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 60(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2015.02.003
Beneish, M. D. (1999). The detection of earnings manipulation. Financial Analysts Journal, 55(5), 24-36. https://doi.org/10.2469/faj.v55.n5.2296
Bộ Tài chính. (2020). Thông tư số 96/2020/TT-BTC hướng dẫn công bố thông tin trên thị trường chứng khoán, ban hành ngày 16/11/2020. Truy cập từ https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Chung-khoan/Thong-tu-96-2020-TT-BTC-quy-dinh-cong-bo-thong-tin-tren-thi-truong-chung-khoan-459000.aspx
Bùi Dương. (2023). Ngành Thuế tăng cường ngăn chặn gian lận trong việc sử dụng hóa đơn. Truy cập ngày 04/02/2026, từ https://gdt.gov.vn/
Chính phủ. (2020a). Nghị định số 123/2020/NĐ-CP quy định về hóa đơn, chứng từ, ban hành ngày 19/10/2020. Truy cập từ https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Ke-toan-Kiem-toan/Nghi-dinh-123-2020-ND-CP-quy-dinh-hoa-don-chung-tu-445980.aspx
Chính phủ. (2020b). Nghị định số 156/2020/NĐ-CP về xử phạt vi phạm hành chính trong lĩnh vực chứng khoán và thị trường chứng khoán, ban hành ngày 31/12/2020. Truy cập từ https://thuvienphapluat.vn/van-ban/Chung-khoan/Nghi-dinh-156-2020-ND-CP-quy-dinh-xu-phat-vi-pham-hanh-chinh-trong-linh-vuc-chung-khoan-461194.aspx
Dechow, P. M., Ge, W., Larson, C. R., & Sloan, R. G. (2011). Predicting material accounting misstatements. Contemporary Accounting Research, 28(1), 17-82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1911-3846.2010.01041.x
Dechow, P. M., Sloan, R. G., & Sweeney, A. P. (1995). Detecting earnings management. The Accounting Review, 70(2), 193-225.
Desai, M. A., & Dharmapala, D. (2006). Corporate tax avoidance and high-powered incentives. Journal of Financial Economics, 79(1), 145-179. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2005.02.002
Diosana, A. Y., & Koerniawan, K. A. (2025). Tax avoidance in the Indonesian energy sector: The role of fraud and governance. Eduvest-Journal of Universal Studies, 5(12), 14810-14822. https://doi.org/10.59188/eduvest.v5i12.52361
Dunbar, A., Higgins, D. M., Phillips, J. D., & Plesko, G. A. (2010). What do measures of tax aggressiveness measure?. Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Conference on Taxation (pp. 18-26). Retrieved from https://ntanet.org/wp-content/uploads/proceedings/2010/003-dunbar-what-do-measures-2010-nta-proceedings.pdf
Erickson, M., Hanlon, M., & Maydew, E. L. (2004). How much will firms pay for earnings that do not exist? Evidence of taxes paid on allegedly fraudulent earnings. The Accounting Review, 79(2), 387-408. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2004.79.2.387
Frank, M. M., Lynch, L. J., & Rego, S. O. (2009). Tax reporting aggressiveness and its relation to aggressive financial reporting. The Accounting Review, 84(2), 467-496. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.2.467
Gupta, S., & Newberry, K. (1997). Determinants of the variability in corporate effective tax rates: Evidence from longitudinal data. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 16(1), 1-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0278-4254(96)00055-5
Hanlon, M., & Heitzman, S. (2010). A review of tax research. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50(2-3), 127-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.09.002
Hanlon, M., & Slemrod, J. (2009). What does tax aggressiveness signal? Evidence from stock price reactions to news about tax shelter involvement. Journal of Public Economics, 93(1-2), 126-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2008.09.004
Hashim, H. A., Ariff, A. M., & Amrah, M. R. (2016). Accounting irregularities and tax aggressiveness. International Journal of Economics, Management and Accounting, 24(1), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.31436/ijema.v24i1.391
Heltzer, W., Mindak, M. P., & Shelton, S. W. (2012). The relation between aggressive financial reporting and aggressive tax reporting: Evidence from ex-Arthur Andersen clients. Research in Accounting Regulation, 24(2), 96-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.racreg.2012.05.001
Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(76)90026-X
Kothari, S. P., Leone, A. J., & Wasley, C. E. (2005). Performance matched discretionary accrual measures. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 39(1), 163-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2004.11.002
Lennox, C., Lisowsky, P., & Pittman, J. (2013). Tax aggressiveness and accounting fraud. Journal of Accounting Research, 51(4), 739-778. https://doi.org/10.1111/joar.12002
Leuz, C., Nanda, D., & Wysocki, P. D. (2003). Earnings management and investor protection: an international comparison. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(3), 505-527. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00121-1
Lucut Capras, I., Achim, M. V., & Mara, E. R. (2024). Is tax avoidance one of the purposes of financial data manipulation? The case of Romania. The Journal of Risk Finance, 25(4), 588-601. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-11-2023-0273
Ngọc Vũ. (2025). Chủ động chống chuyển giá, bảo vệ nguồn thu trong bối cảnh biến động toàn cầu. Truy cập ngày 04/02/2026, từ https://www.gdt.gov.vn/
Nguyen, H. A., & Nguyen, H. L. (2016). Using the M-score model in detecting earnings management: Evidence from non-financial Vietnamese listed companies. VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 32(2), 14-23. Retrieved from https://js.vnu.edu.vn/EAB/article/view/1287
Nguyen, Q., Kim, M. H., & Ali, S. (2024). Corporate governance and earnings management: Evidence from Vietnamese listed firms. International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 775-801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2023.07.084
Nguyen, T., Locke, S., & Reddy, K. (2015). Ownership concentration and corporate performance from a dynamic perspective: Does national governance quality matter? International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 148-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2015.06.005
Nguyen, T. H., & Nguyen, M. H. (2016). Real earnings management: Evidence from Vietnam. Journal of International Economics and Management, 89, 22-34.
OECD. (2022). OECD review of the corporate governance of state-owned enterprises in Viet Nam. Corporate Governance, 192. https://doi.org/10.1787/a22345d0-en
Quốc Hội. (2019). Luật Quản lý thuế số 38/2019/QH14, ban hành ngày 13/6/2019. Truy cập từ https://vanban.chinhphu.vn/?pageid=27160&docid=197312
Rego, S. O. (2003). Tax‐avoidance activities of U.S. multinational corporations. Contemporary Accounting Research, 20(4), 805-833. https://doi.org/10.1506/VANN-B7UB-GMFA-9E6W
Roychowdhury, S. (2006). Earnings management through real activities manipulation. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 42(3), 335-370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2006.01.002
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 JOURNAL OF ASIAN BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC STUDIES
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
