Tác động của rủi ro địa chính trị đến mức độ đầu tư của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết tại Việt Nam

Mạnh Nguyễn Hữu; Quyền Phan Gia

doi:10.24311/jabes/2025.36.4.01

Các tác giả

Nguyễn Hữu Mạnh Trường Đại học Nha Trang Tác giả
Phan Gia Quyền Trường Đại học Nha Trang Tác giả

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2025.36.4.01

Từ khóa:

Rủi ro địa chính trị, Đầu tư, Bất cân xứng thông tin

Tóm tắt

Nghiên cứu này xem xét mối quan hệ giữa rủi ro địa chính trị và mức độ đầu tư của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết tại Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2007–2022, đồng thời đánh giá vai trò của bất cân xứng thông tin. Sử dụng phương pháp Entropy để xây dựng chỉ số đo lường mức độ bất cân xứng thông tin, kết quả cho thấy rủi ro địa chính trị không làm giảm đầu tư thông qua việc cắt giảm chi tiêu vốn, trái ngược với các nghiên cứu trước đây. Tuy nhiên, bất cân xứng thông tin có ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến quyết định đầu tư khi rủi ro địa chính trị tăng. Cụ thể, doanh nghiệp đối mặt với bất cân xứng thông tin cao thường giảm đầu tư, trong khi doanh nghiệp có mức độ bất cân xứng thông tin thấp vẫn duy trì các dự án đầu tư bất chấp rủi ro địa chính trị. Từ những phát hiện này, nhóm tác giả đưa ra các hàm ý chính sách nhằm thúc đẩy đầu tư và góp phần vào tăng trưởng kinh tế quốc gia.

Tài liệu tham khảo

Ahmed, B., Akbar, M., Sabahat, T., Ali, S., Hussain, A., Akbar, A., & Hongming, X. (2020). Does firm life cycle impact corporate investment efficiency?. Sustainability, 13(1), 197.

Ahmed, R., Hudson, R., & Gregoriou, A. (2023). The implications of liquidity ratios: Evidence from Pakistan stock exchange limited. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 87, 235-243.

Almeida, H., & Campello, M. (2007). Financial constraints, asset tangibility, and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 20(5), 1429-1460.

Amihud, Y. (2002). Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects. Journal of Financial Markets, 5(1), 31-56.

An, H., Chen, Y., Luo, D., & Zhang, T. (2016). Political uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Journal of Corporate Finance, 36, 174-189.

Ashraf, B. N., & Shen, Y. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty and banks’ loan pricing. Journal of Financial Stability, 44, 100695.

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.

Baum, C. F., Caglayan, M., & Talavera, O. (2010). On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty. Oxford Economic Papers, 62(2), 286-306.

Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106.

Bhattacharya, M., & Wright, P. M. (2005). Managing human assets in an uncertain world: Applying real options theory to HRM. The International Journal of Human Resource Management, 16(6), 929-948.

Bloom, N., Bond, S., & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. The Review of Economic Studies, 74(2), 391-415.

Bonaime, A., Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2018). Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?. Journal of Financial Economics, 129(3), 531-558.

Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.

Carney, R. W., El Ghoul, S., Guedhami, O., & Wang, H. H. (2024). Geopolitical risk and the cost of capital in emerging economies. Emerging Markets Review, 61, 101149.

Cheng, C. H. J., & Chiu, C. W. J. (2018). How important are global geopolitical risks to emerging countries?. International Economics, 156, 305-325.

Chi, Q., & Li, W. (2017). Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks’ lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks. China Journal of Accounting Research, 10(1), 33-50.

Chordia, T., Roll, R., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2001). Market liquidity and trading activity. The Journal of Finance, 56(2), 501-530.

Çolak, G., Durnev, A., & Qian, Y. (2017). Political uncertainty and IPO activity: Evidence from US gubernatorial elections. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(6), 2523-2564.

Cuculiza, C., Antoniou, C., Kumar, A., & Maligkris, A. (2021). Terrorist attacks, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts. Management Science, 67(4), 2579-2608.

Demir, E., Díez-Esteban, J. M., & García-Gómez, C. D. (2019). The impact of geopolitical risks on cash holdings of hospitality companies: Evidence from emerging countries. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 39, 166-174.

Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton University Press.

Duchin, R., Ozbas, O., & Sensoy, B. A. (2010). Costly external finance, corporate investment, and the subprime mortgage credit crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, 97(3), 418-435.

Foucault, T., & Fresard, L. (2014). Learning from peers' stock prices and corporate investment. Journal of Financial Economics, 111(3), 554-577.

Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2016). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564.

Gupta, R., Gozgor, G., Kaya, H., & Demir, E. (2019). Effects of geopolitical risks on trade flows: Evidence from the gravity model. Eurasian Economic Review, 9, 515-530.

Hu, S., & Gong, D. (2019). Economic policy uncertainty, prudential regulation and bank lending. Finance Research Letters, 29, 373-378.

Kim, H., & Kung, H. (2017). The asset redeployability channel: How uncertainty affects corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 30(1), 245-280.

Kurniawan, F., Amanati, H. T., Nugroho, A. H. L., & Pusparini, N. O. (2024). Effects of policy and economic uncertainty on investment activities and corporate financial reporting: a study of developing countries in Asia-Pacific. Asian Review of Accounting, 32(3), 373-393.

Lai, F., Xiong, D., Zhu, S., Li, Y., & Tan, Y. (2023). Will geopolitical risks only inhibit corporate investment? Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 82, 102134.

Le, A. T., & Tran, T. P. (2021). Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 62, 100703.

Llorente, G., Michaely, R., Saar, G., & Wang, J. (2002). Dynamic volume-return relation of individual stocks. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(4), 1005-1047.

Lof, M., & van Bommel, J. (2023). Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume. Journal of Corporate Finance, 82, 102464.

Lu, Z., Gozgor, G., Huang, M., & Lau, C. K. M. (2020). The impact of geopolitical risks on financial development: evidence from emerging markets. Journal of Competitiveness, 12(1), 93-107. https://doi.org/10.7441/joc.2020.01.06

Mokdadi, S., & Saadaoui, Z. (2023). Geopolitical uncertainty and the cost of debt financing: the moderating role of information asymmetry. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(5), 684-720.

Nguyen, N. H., & Phan, H. V. (2017). Policy uncertainty and mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52(2), 613-644.

Nguyen, T. C., & Thuy, T. H. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the cost of bank loans. Finance Research Letters, 54, 103812.

Panousi, V., & Papanikolaou, D. (2012). Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership. The Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1113-1148.

Roll, R. (1984). A simple implicit measure of the effective bid‐ask spread in an efficient market. The Journal of Finance, 39(4), 1127-1139.

Rumokoy, L. J., Omura, A., & Roca, E. (2023). Geopolitical risk and corporate investment in the metals and mining industry: Evidence from Australia. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 79, 101991.

Saint Akadiri, S., Eluwole, K. K., Akadiri, A. C., & Avci, T. (2020). Does causality between geopolitical risk, tourism and economic growth matter? Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 43, 273-277.

Tan, Ö. M. E. R., Cavlak, H., Cebeci, Y., & Güneş, N. (2022). The impact of geopolitical risk on corporate investment: Evidence from Turkish firms. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 14(1), 16-32.

Wang, X., Wu, Y., & Xu, W. (2019). Geopolitical risk and investment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 56(8), 2023-2059.

Wang, K. H., Su, C. W., & Umar, M. (2021). Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective. Energy, 219, 119555.

Wang, Y., Chen, C. R., & Huang, Y. S. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 26, 227-243.