Cạnh tranh và ổn định ngân hàng – Vai trò điều tiết của bất định  chính sách kinh tế

Như Lê Huỳnh; Vinh Võ Xuân

doi:10.24311/jabes/2024.35.10.05

Authors

Như Lê Huỳnh Trường Đại học Bạc Liêu Author
Vinh Võ Xuân Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24311/jabes/2024.35.10.05

Keywords:

Banking stability, Banking competition, Economics policy uncertainty

Abstract

This study examines the moderating role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) the relationship between competition and bank stability in 20 countries over the period 2009 to 2023. Using an instrumental variable (IV) approach through the generalized method of moments (GMM), based on unbalanced panel data at the bank level, the results support the competition-stability hypothesis and confirm the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between bank competition and bank stability via the economic policy uncertainty index. This is firmly supported by feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation, robust ordinary least squares (Robust OLS) estimation, and Driscoll-Kraay standard error regression. However, all of them do not find similar results with economic policy uncertainty measured through the world uncertainty index (WUI). The empirical findings provide specific policy implications for bank managers and policymakers in making decisions to enhance competitiveness and stabilize the banking system amid current economic policy uncertainty.

References

Ahir, H., Bloom, N., & Furceri, D. (2022). The World Uncertainty Index. Retrieved from https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29763/w29763.pdf

Alessandri, P., & Mumtaz, H. (2019). Financial regimes and uncertainty shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 101, 31-46. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2018.05.001

Allen, F., & Gale, D. (2004). Competition and financial stability. Journal of Money, Credit Banking, 36, 453-480.

Ariss, R. T. (2010). On the implications of market power in banking: Evidence from developing countries. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(4), 765-775.

Ayadi, R., Arbak, E., Naceur, S. B., & De Groen, W. P. (2015). Financial Development, Bank Efficiency, and Economic Growth Across the Mediterranean. In R. Ayadi, M. Dabrowski, & L. De Wulf (Eds.), Economic and Social Development of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries (pp. 219-233). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.

Bayar, Y., Borozan, D., & Gavriletea, M. D. (2021). Banking sector stability and economic growth in post-transition European Union countries. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 26(1), 949-961. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.1829

Beck, T. (2008). Bank competition and financial stability: Friends or foes?. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 4656. Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=1152483

Beck, T., De Jonghe, O., & Schepens, G. (2013). Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 22(2), 218-244. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2012.07.001

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Levine, R. (2006). Bank concentration, competition, and crises: First results. Journal of Banking & Finance, 30(5), 1581-1603.

Berger, A. N. (2009). Comments on bank market structure, competition, and SME financing relationships in European regions by Mercieca, Schaeck, and Wolfe. Journal of Financial Services Research, 36(2), 157-159.

Berger, A. N., Klapper, L. F., & Turk-Ariss, R. (2017). Bank competition and financial stability. In Handbook of competition in banking and finance. Edward Elgar Publishing.

Beylik, U., Cirakli, U., Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Senol, O. (2022). The relationship between health expenditure indicators and economic growth in OECD countries: A Driscoll-Kraay approach. Frontiers in Public Health, 10, 1050550.

Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.

Boot, A. W. A., & Thakor, A. V. (2000). Can relationship banking survive competition?. The Journal of Finance, 55(2), 679-713. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00223

Boyd, J. H., & De Nicolo, G. (2005). The theory of bank risk taking and competition revisited. The Journal of finance, 60(3), 1329-1343.

Cai, T. (2020). Measurement and analysis of the competitiveness of china commercial bank’s loan market. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2020(1), 2675864. doi: https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/2675864

Chen, M., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Bank risk-taking channel of bank competition and monetary policy. Economic and Management Studies, 43(06), 33-47.

Cuestas, J. C., Lucotte, Y., & Reigl, N. (2020). Banking sector concentration, competition and financial stability: The case of the Baltic countries. Post-Communist Economies, 32(2), 215-249.

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Detragiache, E. (2002). Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(7), 1373-1406. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00171-X

Donnellan, J., & Rutledge, W. L. (2019). A case for resource-based view and competitive advantage in banking. Managerial and Decision Economics, 40(6), 728-737. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.3041

Fu, X. M., Lin, Y. R., & Molyneux, P. (2014). Bank competition and financial stability in Asia Pacific. Journal of Banking & Finance, 38, 64-77.

García-Herrero, A., Gavilá, S., & Santabárbara, D. (2009). What explains the low profitability of Chinese banks?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(11), 2080-2092. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.05.005

Goetz, M. R. (2018). Competition and bank stability. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 35, 57-69. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfi.2017.06.001

Hean, O., & Jabas, P. (2024). Bank competition and business formation in the U.S. Midwest. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 16(1), 120-134. doi: 10.1108/JFEP-08-2023-0218

Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312.

Jahn, N., & Kick, T. (2012). Determinants of banking system stability: A macro-prudential analysis. Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/bcbs/events/bhbibe/jahn.pdf

Keeley, M. C. (1990). Deposit insurance, risk, and market power in banking. The American Economic Review, 80(5), 1183-1200.

Kovalenko, V., Bolgar, T., Yevtushenko, O., & Pestovska, Z. (2019). Competitiveness of banks in the modern conditions of financial market development. Financial And Credit Activity: Problems Of Theory And Practice, 2(29), 3-12.

Louhichi, A., Louati, S., & Boujelbene, Y. (2020). The regulations–risk taking nexus under competitive pressure: What about the Islamic banking system?. Research in International Business and Finance, 51, 101074.

Lu, Y., & Wang, Y. (2023). Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 82, 102189.

Marcus, A. J. (1984). Deregulation and bank financial policy. Journal of Banking & Finance, 8(4), 557-565. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(84)80046-1

Minsky, H. (1982). The Financial-Instability Hypothesis: Capitalist Processes and The Behavior of The Economy. Bard College, United States of America. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1281&context=hm_archive

Nguyen, T. C. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Does bank regulation and supervision matter in major European economies?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 74, 101387.

Nguyen, T. L., Le, A. H., & Tran, D. M. (2018). Bank competition and financial stability: Empirical evidence in Vietnam. Paper presented at the Econometrics for Financial Applications.

Phan, D. H. B., Iyke, B. N., Sharma, S. S., & Affandi, Y. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and financial stability–Is there a relation?. Economic Modelling, 94, 1018-1029.

Schaeck, K., & Cihák, M. (2014). Competition, efficiency, and stability in banking. Financial management, 43(1), 215-241.

Shabir, M., Jiang, P., Bakhsh, S., & Zhao, Z. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 68, 101610. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2021.101610

Titko, J., Kozlovskis, K., & Kaliyeva, G. (2015). Competition-stability relationship in the banking sector. Systemics, Cybernetics and Informatics, 13(2), 25-31.

Toma, S. V., Chiriţă, M., & Şarpe, D. (2012). Risk and uncertainty. Procedia Economics and Finance, 3, 975-980.

Tran, D. V., Hoang, K., & Nguyen, C. (2021). How does economic policy uncertainty affect bank business models?. Finance Research Letters, 39, 101639.

Ullah, S., Zaefarian, G., & Ullah, F. (2021). How to use instrumental variables in addressing endogeneity? A step-by-step procedure for non-specialists. Industrial Marketing Management, 96, A1-A6. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2020.03.006

Vives, X. (2008). Competition and regulation in banking: Overview. In Handbook of Financial Intermediation and Banking, ed. Anjan Thakor and Arnoud Boot, 441-447. Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-044451558-2.50021-0

Vural‐Yavaş, Ç. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty, stakeholder engagement, and environmental, social, and governance practices: The moderating effect of competition. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 28(1), 82-102.

Wu, J., Yao, Y., Chen, M., & Jeon, B. N. (2020). Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 68, 101242.

Yao, Z., & Liu, Y. (2023). Crude oil volatility forecasting: New evidence from world uncertainty index. Finance Research Letters, 58, 104029. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104029

Yuan, T. T., Gu, X. A., Yuan, Y.-M., Lu, J. J., & Ni, B. P. (2022). Research on the impact of bank competition on stability—empirical evidence from 4631 banks in US. Heliyon, 8(4).

Zhu, Y., Bashir, S., & Marie, M. (2022). Assessing the relationship between poverty and economic growth: Does sustainable development goal can be achieved?. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(19), 27613-27623. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-18240-5